![]() ![]() Matt Trueblood notes the rarity of extensions of this length in precisely these circumstances.So maybe this winds up the better approach anyway. Of course, if the Cubs can go over the tax multiple years during those three anyway ( something I suspect they would not be permitted by ownership to do if they’d gone over this year – then you’d be talking about three straight years of escalating penalties), then hey, it’s just cash. And the AAV for the extension, for years 2024, 2025, and 2026 is about $11.7 million. So, it appears that this year’s pre-arb agreement ($2.5 million) stays in place for 2023 luxury tax purposes, which means the Cubs still have room to maneuver at midseason under the tax. … Of course, that would mean a much bigger luxury tax payroll number this year for Hoerner, and the Cubs don’t want to go over the tax in 2023 (a $7 million jump would’ve put them RIGHT at or above the threshold).The AAV there would be just $9.4 million, and I’ve gotta believe/hope that would be of huge value to the Cubs’ front office in the years ahead as they navigate sometimes going over the luxury tax and working within whatever budget ownership gives them to work with. The deal hasn’t officially been announced, so I don’t want to make any firm and final proclamations on the financial particulars – we sometimes see these things shift slightly from the time of reporting to the announcement – but it is superficially unfortunate that the Cubs couldn’t do this as an actual four-year, $37.5 million extension.It wouldn’t be unusual for a guy in that situation to want that first real sense of security, especially when it doesn’t foreclose the possibility of a big free agent payday before age 30. In their early discussion of the deal, the folks at The Athletic remind us that, for all his excellence in 2022 (and potential), Hoerner has played just one big league season that topped 50 games.So the Cubs do the whole thing now instead, and they get the extra free agent year at a near-QO price, at the risk of Hoerner getting seriously injured or seriously underperforming at some point over the next three years. That Qualifying Offer isn’t a guarantee that you retain a guy, of course, but it’s kind of a mental barometer of the dollar figure you’d have to be OK with offering a guy anyway (and the guy would have to be OK with his free agent market being damaged by turning it down). There are so many ways to think about this deal, but one of the easiest is that the Cubs are simply transforming all expected payments in arbitration, and via the Qualifying Offer after 2025, to guaranteed money.I’m just happy to have this to talk about, and also happy to know the Cubs have in place for four years a player I like watching play baseball. We haven’t had one of these in a long time to consider! The last major Cubs extension was four years ago with Kyle Hendricks (with David Bote’s following shortly thereafter). So, I wanted to share a lot more of my thoughts on the deal, which I’m just gonna do in a random, bullet point fashion. ![]()
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